Scenarios (WP7): Scenarios (WP7):

In S2BIOM 4 scenarios were elaborated which serve as the basis for the assessment of future biomass demand and consumption patterns for energy and biobased products and cover EU28, western Balkans (WB), Moldova (MD), Ukraine (UKR) and Turkey (TR). 

The 4 scenarios are:

1) Centralised Europe scenario: Large biorefineries within Europe

2) Decentralised local scenario: Local/ regional decentralized units

3) Policy active scenario

4) Policy passive scenario

The scenarios have been specified in a continuim of two key uncertainties:

  • The availability level of (sustainable) biomass, influenced by the strictness of sustainability criteria and the level of competition for resources.
  • The extent to which biobased options will produce in relatively large-scale, centralized conversion systems, or in relatively small-scale, decentralized units. 

A short overview of the scenarios is given in the underneath Figure. For more detailed information on the scenario characteristics and how they are used we recommend to read Deliverable (D7.1).

The scenarios were used as a basis to assess with the ReSolve model, future biomass demand and consumption patterns. The results of this work can be found in D7.2 (A quantitative estimate of biomass demand in 2020 and 2030), D7.2a (Market analysis for heat, electricity and biofuels), D7.2b (Market analysis for lignin and sugar platforms), D7.2c (Market analysis of biomethane, BTX, methanol, hydrogen, ethylene, and mixed alcohols) and D7.3 (Integrated assessment final report).


Overview of S2Biom scenarios and their main characteristics: